(How To) Hold On... Its Going to Be a Bumpy Ride
When markets get as volatile as they have as of late, I always like to refer back a little sheet that I have built over the years that reminds me of some timeless investment truisms. This list originally started as a list of 10 market rules; most attributable to legendary market technician Walter Deemer. However, it has since grown to well over that number courtesy of Yogi Berra, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffet, and my own observations. I offer the following "10+ Investing Rules To Remember" for your consideration:
- Markets tend to return to mean over time.
- Excesses in one direction will lead to excesses in the opposite direction.
- There are no new “eras”. – Excesses are never permanent.
- Exponentially rapid rising or falling markets will usually go farther than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
- The public buys the most at the top and least at the bottom.
- Fear and greed are stronger than long term resolve.
- Bull Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they are narrow.
- Bear Markets have three stages. – sharp down, a reflexive rebound, and a drawn out downtrend
- When experts and forecasts agree, something else will happen.
- Bull Markets are more fun than Bear Markets.
- Though business conditions may change, corporations and securities may change and financial institutions and regulations may change, human nature remains essentially the same.
- Companies are not your friend.
- The Business News/Entertainment industry is not your friend.
- "The Bank" is not your friend.
- Never try and catch a falling knife.
- Don’t fight the Fed.
- Two steps and a stumble (refers to interest rate policy/equity market reaction)
- Pay attention to the yield curve.
- Pay attention to the ISM.
- More money has been lost reaching for yield than any other reason.
- The trend is your friend.
- Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
- Fundamental research works; until it really doesn't.
- Predicting is hard; especially about the future.
- Use the nature of the markets to your favour.
- The most dangerous words in investing are: "Its different this time"
Over the coming weeks, I will expand on these points